by KingOfTheDepths
The art on Memory Worm just cracks me up. "Yes, this is Worm."
Intro
Hi All! It’s been a few months since the last update, so I figured it’s time to do a write up again!
It's been a pretty tame Q1 2024 in terms of set releases for the commons-and-uncommons format. January brought Ravnica Remastered (RVR), with few impactful downshifts and no new printings, and the set largely passed over with the format unchanged. Still, there are some interesting and powerful spells in the set which may warrant a second look in the future! Also, you can now get old-border Pteramander, so it wasn't a complete loss!
February brought Murders at Karlov Manor (MKM), the first set to make use of the new Wizards of the Coast model "Play Boosters". These boosters intentionally increased the power level of commons and uncommons in order to create "more valuable packs", and the impact on Noble was obvious, with well over a dozen format playable cards in the set. Probably the biggest meta shaker was yet another mana base revolution, hot on the heels of the Landcycling cards from Lord of the Rings:
Evolving Wilds, already a widely played card, was power-crept by a strictly better version that a multitude of decks from blitz to ninjas...or really, any deck playing creatures... saw upsides to running over other options that enter the battlefield tapped. As a result of Escape Tunnel's popularity, format staples Wasteland and Price of Progress saw a sharp decline in play over the last three months, which has led to games being more about the permanents that do resolve rather than the cards stuck in the opponents' hand.
In addition to Escape Tunnel, there were a huge number of new format staples, build-around value engines, and spicy off-meta picks which dropped with MKM, thanks to the set's deep artifact theme and record high number of uncounterable removal spells to deal with the new "cloaked" mechanic:
And the really crazy part is that the above cards are not even a complete list of relevant printings from the set - I left off, for example, a card that was just a direct reprint of Thraben Inspector but without the "Soldier" subtype, some interesting "Detective"-typal spells, a card that can be described as "Dragon's Rage Channeler for Creatures", and several other exciting new additions. Murders at Karlov Manor is a gift that keeps on giving, and it would not surprise me if one of the spells from the set becomes a mutli-format staple months after the set release.
At the time of writing this article, the cards from the "Fallout" set (PIP) have yet to make a real impact on the format, mostly due to their newness; however, there are also a high number of exciting new cards from Noble in Fall out as well...as perhaps could be expected from a Commander-focused Universes Beyond magic set. Will you be the first player to break these new cards?
Overall, Noble is experiencing an even more mature metagame than we had three months ago. While there are a few clear strategies "to beat" that represent the majority of interaction and sideboarding decisions, such as Up The Beanstalk piles and Skullclamp combos, the brews keep coming. Every single tourney for the last three months were taken down by a brew, which to me means that the format is very open. The decision to ban Engineered Plague and Mystic Sanctuary six months ago had, in my opinion, the desired effect on the metagame - Control is still strong and viable, but fights on thinner margins than it did before, and token-making and slower midrange strategies are both powerful and well represented.
This month also saw what I am going to refer to as the "Black Renaissance." For much of the early format, Blue and Red were extremely heavily represented, with White coming in at a distant third. However, Black decks have seen an enormous upswing, with variants of The Rack in particular having stellar performances this last month. Turns out fistfuls of discard, paired with sweepers, mana disruption, and a fast clock IS a winning formula! Other decks to 3-0 this quarter are Elves, Goblins, Burn, and Sultai Beanstalk.
For this article, I'm going to highlight some of the hot new decks, some of the things you can expect to see from a top-tier competitive Noble list, and then go into detail on how to fight those decks so you can create brews of your own!
Storm
In my opinion, the largely undisputed best decks in the format are still storm combo lists, centered around mana discounters like Helm of Awakening and High Tide to cast a flurry of spells in a single turn and either win the game on the spot or general insurmountable advantage, leveraging spells like Grapeshot, Galvanic Relay, Empty the Warrens, and Brain Freeze. A key innovation for this archetype in the last few months is splashing green, mostly for sideboard cards like Nature's Claim and Veil of Summer, which are much more efficient and universal than similar effects in other colors.
What makes Storm so strong is that Storm decks are both extremely fast, and generally resilient to creature removal, the primary form of interaction for most decks. It is well-known that Pauper had to ban all of its Storm cards, and Noble occupies a very similar space, with arguably even more pushed storm payoffs and enablers. There are whole categories of decks which are largely invalidated by their inability to present a meaningful gameplan when facing down an opponent on Storm!
The key to beating Storm is generally to present a permanent-based hate card and then protect it with counterspells, discard, or other protection while presenting a fast win condition of your own. Storm decks fundamentally play a large amount of card advantage spells, so they will dig out if you give them too many turns to recover. Permanent disruption options at uncommon, however, are limited. Some good pieces are:
God Pharaoh's Statue (Tinker)
Damping Sphere
Eidolon of Rhetoric
Phyrexian Censor
Narset, Parter of Veils
Deafening Silence
Counterbalance
There are a handful of “Tier Two” options which are generally worse but can still get the job done in certain games:
Vryn Wingmare
Dovin, Hand of Control
Arcane Laboratory
Rule of Law
Keen-Eared Sentry
However, you can also often win games against Storm with multiple pieces of disruption, so cards like Spell Pierce, Duress, Hymn to Tourach, Force of Will, Hydroblast, Pyroblast, Blossoming Calm, and Calamity’s Wake can also be relevant in the matchup. Additionally, grave hate is often relevant to some extent. However, I caution against relying solely on non-permanent spells to win the game, as Storm will often out-muscle the draw power and card selection of opposing decks.
As the storm deck, you mostly have to worry about artifact and enchantment based hate (see above) or blue and black disruption. Therefore, your sideboard can be relatively narrow and focused on these effects - Nature's Claim, Veil of Summer, and Pyroblast/Hydroblast are your best friends.
Elves/Goblins
Elves and Goblins both had breakout seasons this month, posting multiple positive records out of nowhere from effectively zero format representation prior. Both are go-wide decks with both aggro beatdown and combo potential which use Skullclamp and other similar spells to refuel after dumping their hand. They are fast, resilient, diverse, and have toolbox elements to help fight through hate pieces. They are also both some of the most classic decks in all of Magic, drawing upon over twenty years of spells to present fun and diverse threats, and bring a strong feeling of nostalgia.
In addition to the above, I am grouping these two decks together because they demand answers early, their key creatures need to be killed on sight, and they are combated in similar ways. The can also both win the game as early as Turn 2, although Turn 3 or 4 combo wins are more likely.
The most important thing to do in this matchup is to disable Skullclamp. There are limited options for this in the format:
Stone of Erech
Sorcerous Spyglass
Narset, Parter of Veils
You can of course also remove the Skullclamp with artifact removal, or discard it with Inquisition of Kozilek or Duress, or counter it on the stack with Force of Will, Spell Pierce, Mana Drain, etc…
Because both Goblins and Elves have big-mana potential, they can often "go off" twice in the same turn. The second angle to fight these two decks on once you have checked the Skullclamp combo gameplay is to beat the creature beat down gameplan. For this I recommend targeted removal paired with sweepers, especially 2-toughness sweepers. Cards like:
Cry of the Carnarium
Flame Sweep
Pyrokinesis
Pyroclasm
Rough//Tumble
1-toughness sweepers can also play out well, cards like:
Fear Fire Foes!
Orzhov Pontiff
Night Clubber
Contagion
Suffocating Fumes
For both decks, point targeted removal like Lightning Bolt, Swords to Plowshares, etc… at the mana-producing creatures like Skirk Prospector, Heritage Druid, Birchlore Rangers, and Name-Sticker Goblin. These are the cards that push the deck into overdrive!
Storm hate cards listed in above are also relevant for the matchup, but specifically not Deafening Silence for the obvious reasons.
Blitz/Infect/Aggro
Another important category of decks to beat are creature/spell aggro decks like Blitz, Infect, Kiln Fiend. These decks apply pressure quickly and often threaten a Turn 3 or Turn 4 win (sometimes even faster!). Because of their raw speed, they demand early interaction from the opponent, usually removal. Aggro has remained prominent in Noble in part due to the fantastic support card Gitaxian Probe, which informs the aggro gamer what to play around while also sometimes giving beneficial triggers to creatures like Sprite Dragon.
Beating Aggro can be a bit of a puzzle. You can lose because of a tapped land, red removal is "sketchy" because the creatures often grow out of range, and they play enough disruption to make your spells not even resolve some amount of the time.
The most surefire way to beat aggro is to lean into removal + a second disruptive element, either a storm hate card like the ones listed above (relevant vs most aggro flavors) or more traditional Countermagic+Discard+Lifegain. Sweepers are also relevant in the matchup. Discard like Inquisition of Kozilek or Dreams of Oil and Steel can be used to take a key card from their hand and buy time, but it will not be enough to win the game on it's own.
In particular, one or zero mana removal is important, and it is best to try and time it for a turn when your opponent is tapped out. Cards like:
Fatal Push
Swords to Plowshares
Portable Hole
Snuff Out
Contagion
Getting rid of the biggest threat is critical for winning games, as one of the axes that aggro decks excel on is forcing their opponent to spend more mana on the removal than they did on the threat. Similarly, an important sideboard card for decks that cannot play the options above is Dismember, because it both kills creatures that are pumped (such as an infect creature that is Invigorated or a Mutagenic Growth'd Swiftspear) and can trade up on mana. 5 toughness tends to be the "magic number" if you are forced to pick one.
Tinker Decks (aggro or combo)
Tinker decks come in a variety of forms, but all of them have one key card you need to beware of no matter what deck you are piloting - God Pharaoh’s Statue. The effect of making all spells cost 2 more to cast can be absolutely backbreaking for many decks.
Because Tinker is a blue spell, most tinker decks are also playing some form of Countermagic to protect the Statue after it resolves. This means that destroying the statue in play is sometimes out of the question, in addition to the taxing effect making it very difficult to cast a removal spell. You may never be able to cast a higher-mana-value spell like Dust to Dust at 5 mana, and Statue dodges a lot of traditional removal spells like Prismatic Ending, Meltdown, and Energy Flux.
Which is all to say, you must bring dedicated, specialized removal for God Pharaoh's Statue. I recommend one of the following 1-mana removal spells:
Nature’s Claim
Shattering Spree
Chain of Vapor
Haywire Mite
Ancient Grudge
Some other relevant, but worse, options include:
Pick Your Poison
Revoke Existence
Tear Asunder
Banishing Slash
Masked Vandal
Goblin Cratermaker
Cast into the Fire
Invasion of New Capenna
Cankerbloom/Qasali Pridemage/Outland Liberator/Cathar Commando
Either way, I hope the message is clear: targeted artifact removal with a low mana cost! Generally these can be sideboard spells, and the more flexible the better. Be careful with artifact edicts like hot new card Pick Your Poison, as most Tinker decks are also playing artifact lands.
The other way to deal with Tinker decks is to try to discard the Tinker before they cast it or counter it on the stack - all of the classic disruption like Inquisition of Kozilek, Duress, Cabal Therapy, Force of Will, Spell Pierce, Pyroblast, etc… works for this. Note that this strategy is not surefire against Tinker decks and you will also often need to remove the Statue from play at some point during the game.
Also be aware - the Tinker decks that have found a foothold in the format are all proactive lists, and they will continue to present game-ending threats regardless of whether or not the Tinker resolves, so don't go overboard to specifically answer the Statue!
Control Decks
In order to combat these strong combo and aggro decks, many players will be drawn to control in order to play stacks of superior-quality interaction. Control decks go deep on hand attack, countermagic, and sweepers in order to get ahead and stay ahead. While I will caution that, in general, control is weaker than it has been in the past, it is still a strong strategy that deserves respecting just as much as the other decks in this article.
Control decks are extremely reliant on drawing the right cards at the right time, as every single spell in the deck will not be relevant for every matchup, and it’s possible to overwhelm control lists with card draw from effects like Skullclamp and Treasure Cruise. The best way to combat a control deck is with discard, as you can take their most relevant spell and pull ahead while they dig for another copy. Best options are:
Cabal Therapy
Inquisition of Kozilek
Duress
But other reasonable options include:
Mother of Runes
Spell Pierce
Pyroblast
Hymn to Tourach
Additionally, because Control decks tend to focus on casting higher-mana value spells, mana disruption can be effective:
Wasteland
Sinkhole
Crack the Earth
Sorcerous Spyglass
The Storm hate cards from the first section of this article are also fantastic against Control, as they can shut down control's cantrips from being as effective and lower their card quality. If they need to cantrip twice to find a sweeper...good luck doing that with a Damping Sphere in play!
Graveyard-Nonsense
This last category of decks comes in all kinds of shapes and sizes. Turbo-reanimator which tries to slam a T1 or T2 8-mana creature, slower Reanimator which plays more midrange cards but still can slam an early Troll of Kazad-dum, Dredge in its various colors with go-wide board states, Insidious Roots decks, Lingering Souls lists. This is really just my plug to remind you to not cut graveyard hate from your decks. The best repeatable options include:
Relic of Progenitus
Planar Void
Stone of Erech
Good one-shot effects include:
Nihil Spellbomb
Soul Guide Lantern
Ravenous Trap
Tormod’s Crypt
Faeries Macabre
Bojoka Bog
And reasonable options that offer other utility include:
Cling to Dust
Dawnbringer Cleric
Armored Scrapgorger
Jund Charm / Rakdos Charm / Riveter’s Charm
Binding of the Titans
I would not run any of the options in the last category without substantial support from the other two groups!
A key aspect of graveyard hate is that when you need it, you need it NOW, so I would focus on running variants that your deck is good at finding; i.e. a Mystical Tutor deck might favor Ravenous Trap over other options.
So what should you play in the Quarterly?
There are a couple of common elements across the decks discussed; notably, countermagic and discard are generally good in every matchup, and “storm hate” is good in most if not all matchups. Being able to find these cards is important, and as always, playing a proactive deck is more likely to convert to wins because you can ignore most of your opponent’s spells and focus on the relatively few hate cards they run to stop you.
I recommend specifically decks that can find their important interaction consistently but have a very high floor even when they don't - lists like Gruul Memory Worm Storm, Izzet Tinker Tempo, Goblins, Elves. I also particularly like black midrange decks at the current moment, and lists like Dimir Initiative and The Rack can probably easily take down an event with clever and deliberate flex slots and sideboarding.
That's a wrap! I hope you found this format rundown both insightful, and helpful for understanding the current metagame! Until next time!
-KingOfTheDepths
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